Here we were thinking that Google was stealing all the headlines in its industry defining battle with Apple… here we were thinking that Comcast was going to change the television model with its pending acquisition of NBC-Universal… and here comes Apple, sauntering into the meeting room, seemingly oblivious or at least nonchalant, sitting down in the assigned seat behind the iTunes name-plate, making sure the logo is just right, then, with all eyes turned on it, letting it be known (without raising its voice) that it is about to deliver a television deal which could make the Comcast/NBC combination the biggest anti-climax in deal history, and which already (by its very possibility) makes Google look silly (no?) chasing all those little wannabes around.
The room is silent for an instant, before all the attendees – Internet industry competitors, television networks, cable operators, reporters, teenagers and other early adopters – jump out of their seats with positive or negative excitement, storm this way and that, muttering words and other sounds to each other, to themselves, to the void, then make for the exit all at once to go someplace quiet to figure it all out.
We have seen the headlines by now, in last night’s and this morning’s blogs and subscription news services. Yes, Apple is doing it again. The company changed the music industry, (though some would say, not necessarily for the better), it has done a thing or two to the mobile market, (setting the standard by which all mobile consumer product is now measured), and is now in the process of redefining video distribution. That only two major studio/networks seem so far interested to sign on is not important, because with Disney/ABC/ESPN and CBS (and whatever else that means) on board, with the public soon to be all in a tizzy and demanding more, this is a major icebreaker that will force others to join sooner or later. I’m guessing sooner. It’s inevitable, and protests to the contrary are simply distasteful. Why not just get on with it already and make the best…
The potential consequences and repercussions are so vast and numerous that books could probably be written. If pay television migrates to an online a la carte model, for example, what will make the cable company different from a mere ISP? For that matter, what will make any of the infrastructure companies – throwing telcos into the mix – so very different from one another? (As there is already Google talk about an unlocked phone, and with net neutrality breathing down the necks of calecos and telcos, being even further relegated to commodity status is, like, just what they need.) And in the meantime, if Apple can complete its deals quickly, what does this do to the Comcast/NBC merger that could take months if not years to make it through regulators?
On another note, while everyone has been worrying that free content will be the uneconomic norm, the reported terms of the Apple deal would throw a subscription lifeline to a content industry in need, and may set a new standard to keep video from suffering the fate of music. Perhaps. Although iTunes music has never been free of charge either… The stuff is complicated.
And finally, what does this all mean for Apple’s arch-nemesis, Google? (Funny we almost forgot.) On one hand Google is pushing for everything to be online, in the open, in the cloud, and free – except for advertising – while on the other hand Apple is pushing for many things to be online, but on its proprietary line (so to speak), in its own cloud, and subscription-based. The more consumers move to Apple’s cloud (as it were) and away from the Internet at large, the less consumers will be searching for goodness only knows what on Google. The less consumers are on Google, doing whatever, the less advertising revenue there will be for the search giant.
Fittingly, I can’t think of a neat conclusion to this article. As always in this sector, it’s too soon to tell.
