One must be absolutely modern, according to Rimbaud. And I think we are beginning to slip. While this observation may stem from an East Village walkabout the other day, a series of news and editorial flashes since have probably contributed to the mood. In no particular order, here are highlights: (1) Paul Allen’s patent infringement litigation against what is virtually the tech segment at large ; (2) growth companies HP and Dell battling for data center 3PAR; (3) central bankers’ heavy thought with light conclusions at their Jackson Hole off-site retreat; (4) an analysis of middling seed “accelerator” economics, with broader repercussions for seed funds, venture capital, and entrepreneurship overall; (5) Alan Murray’s widely circulated column about new bureaucratic systems in corporate management; and (6) a survey conducted by AdWeek/Harris, published by the New York Daily News, showing that, when offered a choice, very few respondents would want to be younger, but many (by an overwhelming margin) would want to be richer sooner.
That last one, to be honest, blows my mind. It floors me, and seems more shocking even than Paul Allen’s lawsuit, (although each does a lot to confirm the other). As an investor and banker and capitalist, far be it from me to make moralistic value judgments about the elevated status of wealth and monetary rewards that both of these news stories imply. As an investor and banker and capitalist, I pause at the limited upside that is suggested. Being younger would buy someone more time, to correct mistakes, pursue new fields, grow all over again… but one has to feel motivated for it. When survey respondents prefer to skip all that stuff and nonsense and get straight to the bunch of dough, there is in this decision a shortage of energy, inspiration, and belief in the future. This is not unlike one’s suing cash-rich corporations for their use of an allegedly proprietary technology – invented a decade ago and since used by such titans undisturbed. Disturbing them now, after years, might indicate that the plaintiff is low on new ideas, may have become less busy, and is now coming around to the bottom of the barrel.
This shortage of fresh ideas was in part the subject of Alan Murray’s column about corporate management, and maybe some of it reflects in the cash hoarding that large organizations have over the last few years consciously or unconsciously conducted. As a next stage in such corporate evolution, the HP vs. Dell competition is a signal of consolidation ahead. This anyway seems to be a more likely phenomenon than massive innovation by cash hoarding titans. For large corporations, the trend may be consistent with history, but it comes as a growing surprise each day to see innovation lapse even among the start-up and venture stage community. There are 250,000 apps now in the Apple ecosystem, countless Groupon imitators, and several check-in platforms without a substantiated point. It should not be surprising, then, that the venture model is breaking down, all the way to the seed accelerator level (as previously noted) and beyond. It should not be surprising either that economies seem stuck in a murky middle-ground between a double-dip recession, a recession that is ongoing, and an environment that may be improving but without material impact.
What we need is renewed energy, truly modern ideas, fresh perspectives, and new solutions to problems that are also very new. Paul Allen should be working on his next Microsoft rather than trying to extract wealth from Apple. Dell and HP should be working on new technologies that will provide new platforms for new entrepreneurs. Venture investors should identify new investing modes that better conform with new practical realities, rather than continuing to force the same square peg into the same round hole that hasn’t really worked since the late 90s. And survey respondents should want to be young again, automatically, without even thinking, because who would pass on a second chance to make an improved statement? The very thought should be inconceivable.
