It can be an amusing exercise sometimes to second-guess causes, effects and other matters of relativity in the economy. For instance, is this now being pulled down by consumer deleveraging or are consumers deleveraging because of a soft economy? Further, if leverage at all levels should never have risen to where it rose in the first place, is the economy technically soft or just where it belongs? When we refer to a Depression or a Great Recessions we imply something about economic unhealth, disruption, and abnormality; but what if the abnormal state, the disease, the disruption are not in the down-cycle but rather the period and circumstances preceding it? I suppose we refer to those periods and such corresponding elements as bubbles, but we tend not to be particularly fussed about these when they occur. We treat bubbles with a tone of academic detachment, we debate their existence, we sometimes joke or make up silly names, and after they pop we look for economic cures to the ailment.
I am vaguely reminded of the business school adage by way of ancient Chinese wisdom: the battle is won or lost before it is fought. This has to do with preparation and strategy, at least in the business school context, but it also relates to causality in the sense of issues raised in the previous paragraph. In that same spirit, I sometimes wonder if the causality begins and ends with leverage, with bubbles, or if these too have been an effect rather than a cause, a manifestation of a deeper fundamental driver. Conventional wisdom has dealt with this very issue often enough, and the conclusion is usually along the lines of short-term orientation in the market, short-term oriented compensation structures for those who impact the market’s directions, and at the consumer level the multitude of fads that come and go and the variety of programs that tend to blur the line between necessary and discretionary spending. But this either doesn’t delve deeply enough into the subject or more likely fails to connect the dots, as it were, for a more complete picture.
To complete the picture, or at least to add depth to it, there is another quality that must be considered, which has something to do with efficiency, competency, and the counterpart to these things, apathy. To illustrate, let’s look at a selection of corporate news stories from the past week: One major international bank is suffering a multi-billion dollar loss as a result of poor executive supervision, one major technology company is replacing its CEO and reversing his strategy after less than one year on a job for which he was not actually interviewed by the board, one major Internet company is firing off conflicting emails to its employees about the future of the company as it currently steers without a clear path, one major entertainment and information hub has become its own scandalous story, and one of the highest-profile IPO candidates is having to restate its gimmicky filing now for the third time while its executive ranks unsettle. To underscore the point with contrast, we concurrently lament the departure of modern industry’s most successful executive, who led the development of the world’s most valuable company with vision as well as attention to detail.
The examples cited bring home, I think, all of the issues raised: short-term and long-term orientation, efficiency and apathy, bubbles and fundamentals, causes and effects, battles won and lost. When we consider the state of the economy – worldwide – we should not dismiss such issues as irrelevant simply because less quantifiable than aggregate leverage and money supply. Economies are based on enterprise, and the principal lesson all good entrepreneurs can recite by rote is that success and failure is all about execution. It’s time for this lesson to be applied with utmost seriousness and urgency across all segments, private as well as public, because when circumstances change as drastically as these have in the last few years even the most mature entities contain elements of the startup.